Week ahead: Rise in US employment could signify better health in the labour market

November 28, 2022

The US Department of Labor reported that non-farm payrolls rose by 261,000 last month, more than economists had forecasted. The increase in hiring was driven by more people entering the labour force.

Meanwhile, private payrolls rose by 239,000 in October according to a report from ADP, with the leisure and hospitality industry seeing the most gains.

Here’s what to expect from the week ahead:

Canadian Gross Domestic Product M/M (29 November)

Preliminary estimates show that the Canadian economy grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2022, with 0.1% growth from August to September.

US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (30 November)

The private sector produced 239,000 new jobs in October of 2022, the most since July. Analysts forecast another 200,000 new jobs in November.

OPEC Meetings (1 December)

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) had no plans to ease production limits and could take further measures to balance the market should oil prices continue to slide downwards.

OPEC+ also announced that it will maintain the current two-million-barrel-per-day production cut until the end of 2023. The organization hinted that, in the future, they might reduce production further to balance supply and demand. They also suggested that they are always ready to intervene in the oil market.

Swiss Consumer Price Index (1 December)

The Swiss Consumer Price Index rose 0.10% in October over the previous month.

Analysts expect an increase of another 0.10% for November.

US Core PCE Price Index M/M (1 December)

In August, the core personal consumption expenditures index for the US, excluding food and energy, grew by 0.6%. Analysts expect this index will be at 0.4% in September.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (1 December)

The US Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI index fell from 50.9 in September to 50.2 in October.

This suggests that factory activity has expanded at its slowest rate since mid-2020. A PMI of 50 is expected for November.

Canadian Employment Data (2 December)

Canada’s economy added 108,300 jobs in October, the most since February. The unemployment rate remained at 5.2%.

Analysts had forecast a decrease of 20,000 jobs and an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.4%.

US Non-Farm Employment Change (2 December)

The US economy added 261,000 jobs in October, and economists expect 200,000 jobs to be added in November, according to recent estimates. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.