Forex Market Analysis: Key Forex Reports & Market Trends 3 Jan 2023

January 3, 2024

Forex Daily Market Analysis: 3 Jan 2023


  • Key Reports This Week:
    • JOLTs, ADP, and NFP reports released.
    • Focus on understanding the impact of these reports on the market.
  • Fed Chair Powell’s Dovish Stance:
    • Assessing the dovishness of Fed Chair Powell at the recent FOMC meeting.
    • Reevaluating market interpretation of Powell’s remarks based on the released meeting minutes.
  • Rate Cut Expectations:
    • Reviewing changes in expectations for US rate cuts.
    • Initially anticipating 175 basis points, now reduced to 150 basis points.
  • Upcoming Jobs Reports:
    • November JOLTS job openings at 15:00 UK.
    • December ADP report on Thursday at 13:15 UK.
    • Latest US NFP report on Friday at 13:30 UK.
  • Market Reaction to Rate Expectations:
    • US dollar retaining gains from Tuesday amid reduced expectations of aggressive rate cuts.
    • Recent tightening of rate expectations led to higher US bond yields and a boost in the US dollar.
  • US Dollar Index (DXY) Overview:
    • DXY chart displaying a bearish overall trend.
    • Recent spike in response to rate expectations, nearing the reversal of a bearish pennant pattern from December.
  • Potential Consolidation:
    • Considering the possibility of a short consolidation period around current levels for the US dollar index


Key events this today:

  • Germany unemployment, Wednesday
  • US FOMC minutes, ISM Manufacturing, job openings, light vehicle sales, Wednesday
  • Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — an FOMC voter in 2024 — speaks, Wednesday
    • Market Overview:
    • Bonds extended their decline, and stocks showed marginal movements.
    • Traders anticipating key US data to validate interest-rate cut predictions for the year.
    • Global Market Reaction:
    • Europe’s Stoxx 600 and US futures relatively unchanged after Tuesday’s significant slump.
    • US Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year bond rate up by three basis points.
    • Dollar remained steady against its Group-of-10 peers, following its notable daily gain.
    • Historical Significance:
    • Combined global slump in stocks and bonds on Tuesday marked the most significant for a first full trading day since at least 1999.
    • Traders adjusting expectations on Federal Reserve easing.
    • Upcoming Data:
    • Latest Fed minutes, manufacturing, and job openings data scheduled for Wednesday may provide insights into market trends.
    • Market Sentiment and Uncertainty:
    • Beginning of 2024 marked by a “risk retrenchment,” according to Vishnu Varathan, chief economist at Mizuho Bank.
    • Uncertainty whether the recent market slump is a sustained correction or pre-NFP profit-taking.
    • Asian Markets and China Tech Focus:
    • Chinese tech shares down over 2% amid reports of a top official overseeing the gaming industry being removed in Beijing.
    • Potential government efforts to address backlash against new regulations impacting the sector.
    • Bitcoin and Oil:
    • Bitcoin trading stronger for the fifth day, hovering around $45,000, amid expectations of US approval for a cryptocurrency ETF.
    • Oil holding losses, influenced by a risk-off tone in markets and concerns about a conflict in the Red Sea.

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